ClimTip

EU project ClimTip - Quantifying climate tipping points and their impacts

Rising global temperatures pose significant risks to humanity, including increasing weather extremes such as heat, droughts, heavy rainfall and more intense tropical storms, as well as rising sea levels and the loss of ecosystems. While most of these risks increase gradually with further warming, there are certain subsystems in the climate system that lead to drastic and irreversible changes when specific tipping points are crossed. The underlying mechanisms of these tipping elements and their interactions have not yet been sufficiently researched and are not yet fully understood. The EU project ClimTip aims to enhance our understanding of potential “Earth system Tipping Elements” (TEs).

Early warning system for potential shifts in climate and ecosystems

Using a comprehensive approach, the ClimTip consortium will analyse data from different sources, including historical climate records and advanced computer models, to identify and characterise these tipping points. The project aims to develop an early warning system for potential shifts in climate and ecosystems.

To achieve this, ClimTip will improve Earth system models (ESMs), which are essential tools for predicting large-scale tipping events. By refining the representation of the suggested Earth system Tipping Elements, the project seeks to identify boundaries within which humanity can safely operate to avoid destabilising critical Earth systems, considering uncertainties in the data.

Unique climate service through high-resolution global climate data sets

As a unique climate service, ClimTip will provide global high-resolution climate datasets for large-scale tipping events which are more reliable and accurate. Using coherent and plausible descriptions of how specific future climate events or phenomena might unfold under different conditions (storylines of tipping) from comprehensive ESMs, the project will assess the impacts of tipping points on climate, ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture, society, and the economy. These results will be put in relation with existing global climate and biodiversity agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030 and their policy goals.

ClimTip's results will establish a solid foundation for assessing the risks associated with climate tipping points and developing strategies for adaptation and mitigation. The project is dedicated to sharing its insights with the scientific community, the general public, and relevant organizations like IPBES and IPCC to enhance our collective understanding of climate tipping points and related risks.

Project objectives

ClimTip aims to enhance our ability to assess and manage the risks associated with large-scale tipping events in Earth's climate and ecosystems due to human activities. This involves evaluating the impacts on climate, ecology, and society, as well as identifying adaptation and mitigation strategies. ClimTip’s core objectives are:

1. Improve the understanding of TEs & improve models.

2. Characterise TEs, identify unknown tipping potential

3. Assess the current stability of climate and ecosystem TEs.

4. Quantify the impacts of large-scale tipping events.

5. Enhance resilience for improved adaptation and mitigation

6. Assess the costs of tipping events and their implications for mitigation.

7. Increase public awareness of tipping point risks.

Through improved understanding and modelling, ClimTip wants to identify unknown tipping points, assess current stability, and quantify the impacts of these events. This will help determine safe operating limits within which humanity can safely operate to avoid destabilising critical Earth systems, and develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures, considering the many different uncertainties inherent to climate sciences. These include a. o. physical and biological uncertainties (how different systems respond to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions or different level of warming), data limitations (historical, observational), regional variability, as well as interactions between different systems of the Earth.

ClimTip will deliver comprehensive knowledge to support tipping-aware risk assessment and strategies for adaptation and mitigation. ClimTip will disseminate its findings to scientific communities, the general public, and targeted organisations such as IPBES (Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) and IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).

Target groups

Scientific community
International policy-makers, e.g. those involved in COP negotiations
Regional and local decision-makers, e.g. governments and administration involved in climate adaptation, including decision-makers in forestry and agriculture (e.g. private and public forest managers, agricultural administrations)
NGOs with specific interest in climate change and sustainable development goals
General public and citizens in the EU and worldwide with an interest in climate change science and policy
Young people in Europe and worldwide working for NGOs, and activists, e.g. from Fridays for Future
Private sector, e.g. companies with an interest in climate risks and implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies or companies trying to find out about risks of their CO2 emissions, e.g. private or semi-private forestry or agricultural organisations
Intergovernmental organisations such as IPBES and IPCC.

BayFOR as a partner

BayFOR supported ClimTip in the development and preparation of the project application until the project started in March 2024. In close cooperation with the consortium, it was involved in the conception, structuring and budgeting of the project. BayFOR also advised all partners on the necessary formalities and administrative issues. As a project partner, BayFOR supports ClimTip in daily financial and administrative project management.

Funding period

The project is funded by the EU framework programme for research and innovation, Horizon Europe, under grant agreement number 101137601 from 1 March 2024 to 29 February 2028 (call: HORIZON-CL5-2023-D1-01) with a total project budget of around 6 million euros, of which 2,5 million euros will go to Bavaria.

Consortium

Coordinated by the Technical University of Munich, ClimTip brings together 21 leading research institutions and organisations from 12 countries including Germany, China, Denmark, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States of America.

Project partners

Coordinator:
Technical University of Munich, Germany

Partner:

Bavarian Research Alliance GmbH, Germany
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Germany
École Normale Supérieure, France
LMU Munich, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
Complutense University of Madrid, Spain
University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Uppsala University, Sweden
Utrecht University, The Netherlands
Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), France
Università degli Studi di Firenze, Italy
University of Bern, Switzerland
Beijing Normal University, China
World Bank Group, USA
University of Reading, United Kingdom
University of Exeter, United Kingdom
Met Office, United Kingdom
The London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom
University of Leicester, United Kingdom
UiT - The Arctic University of Norway, Norway